As Cities Grow, So Do the Numbers of Homeless

Homelessness is a mark of failure for communities in providing basic security. Based on national reports, about 2 percent of the world’s population may be homeless. Another 20 percent lacks adequate housing, reports demographer Joseph Chamie. Such statistics come with a caveat. Obtaining accurate numbers is difficult, mostly due to wild variations in definitions and methodologies around the globe and even within nations. Also, measuring homelessness is costly: Cities may under-count due to embarrassment while individuals avoid officials due to shame and fear of arrest and harassment. Reasons for homelessness include “shortages of affordable housing, privatization of civic services, investment speculation in housing, unplanned and rapid urbanization, as well as poverty, unemployment and family breakdown,” Chamie explains. “Also contributing is a lack of services and facilities for those suffering from mental illness, alcoholism or substance abuse and displacement caused by conflicts, natural disasters and government housing policies.” Even people with jobs can struggle to keep homes. Some governments offer support programs while others do what they can to chase the homeless to other locales. Experts debate how to measure the problem and whether the issue can even be resolved. Regardless of the many challenges, societies must address homelessness. – YaleGlobal

As Cities Grow, So Do the Numbers of Homeless

Homelessness is more visible and varying definitions and methodologies prevent global comparisons; experts debate if the problem can be solved
Joseph Chamie
Thursday, July 13, 2017

images of person clutching bread in Russia and India's poor
Under the open sky: Increasing numbers of people are homeless, in both wealthy and poor cities, from Russia to India

NOTE: This article was updated on 21 January 2020 to include the specific cautionary note from the OECD on using the data for comparisons.

NEW YORK: People openly live on the streets of the world’s major urban centers – from Cairo to Washington, DC – a disconcerting reminder of homelessness. While some maintain homelessness is a solvable problem, others conclude that the condition is an enduring feature of modern urban landscapes.

Homelessness was once considerably less visible. In 1950, for example, 70 percent of the world’s population of 2.5 billion was spread out across rural areas. Housing problems, far removed from urban centers, were largely unnoticed. Today, most of the world’s population of 7.6 billion, 55 percent, is concentrated in urban centers, in close proximity to the politically influential and economically well-to-do.

Based on national reports, it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. However, about 1.6 billion, more than 20 percent of the world’s population, may lack adequate housing.

Obtaining an accurate picture of homelessness globally is challenging for several reasons. First, and perhaps most problematic, is variations in definitions. Homelessness can vary from simply the absence of adequate living quarters or rough sleeping to include the lack of a permanent residence that provides roots, security, identity and emotional wellbeing. The absence of an internationally agreed upon definition of homelessness hampers meaningful comparisons. The United Nations has recognized that definitions, methodologies and strategies vary across countries because homelessness is essentially culturally defined based on concepts such as adequate housing, minimum community housing standard or security of tenure.

Second, many governments lack resources and commitment to measure the complicated and elusive phenomenon. Authorities confront a dynamic situation with frequent changes in housing status, and many communities have not established accurate trends of homelessness.

Third, homelessness is often considered embarrassing, a taboo subject, and governments tend to understate the problem. Obtaining accurate numbers is difficult, especially in developing countries. In Moscow, for example, officials report that the homeless number around 10,000, while non-government organizations claim that as many as 100,000 live on the streets. Also, in the Philippines capital of Manila, reported to have the largest homeless population of any city in the world, estimates vary from several million to tens of thousands. In the world’s billion-plus populations, China and India, reported numbers of homeless are 3 million and 1.77 million, respectively, rates of 0.22 percent and 0.14 percent – on par with levels reported by many wealthy developed countries. Given their levels of socioeconomic development, the Chinese and Indian rates of homelessness appear unduly low.

Fourth, many of the homeless are reluctant to be enumerated or registered. Homeless youth often avoid authorities who may contact parents or place them in foster care. Some parents may not wish to be labeled as homeless out of fear of losing custody of children. Also, some homeless persons, especially those suffering from mental disorders or substance abuse, fear arrest or confinement at a medical facility for treatment.

Acknowledging that national definitions of homelessness vary and the limitations in available data and statistical measures, the highest levels of homelessness, typically double-digit rates, are in the least developed nations, failing states and countries in conflict or suffering from natural disasters. Haiti, Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Syria, have large numbers of internally displaced persons, many living in makeshift temporary housing, shantytowns or government shelters.

Graph with OECD data show varying homelessness rates for nations ranging from near 1 percent for New Zealand to near zero for Japan
Strategies: Definitions and policies vary among and within nations; some governments lump the issue with poverty and high levels may indicate better monitoring (Source: Policies, OECD; data and year collected, OECD)

Keeping that caution in mind, homelessness rates reported in most developed countries, including those in shelters and on the streets, are comparatively low. The proportions of homeless among OECD countries, for example, are below 1 percent. The highest rate, nearly 1 percent, is in New Zealand, where more than 40,000 people live on the streets or in emergency housing or substandard shelters. Ten countries, including Italy, Japan and Spain, report homeless rates of less than a 10th of 1 percent. While rates in wealthy developed nations are small, they represent large numbers of homeless persons, more than 500,000 in the United States and more than 100,000 in Australia and France.

Trends in homelessness among OECD countries with available data are mixed. In recent years rates of homelessness are reported to have increased in Denmark, England, France, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands and New Zealand, while decreasing in Finland and the United States. Also, national levels of homelessness are typically lower than those of their major cities. For example, while the rate of homelessness is 0.17 percent, the rate in its capital, Washington, DC, is more than seven times higher at 1.24 percent. The majority of homeless in the United States, 60 percent, are male, with rates nearly twice as high as those of women.

Causes of homelessness across countries are multifaceted, though some  factors stand out, including shortages of affordable housing, privatization of civic services, investment speculation in housing, unplanned and rapid urbanization, as well as poverty, unemployment and family breakdown. Also contributing is a lack of services and facilities for those suffering from mental illness, alcoholism or substance abuse and displacement caused by conflicts, natural disasters and government housing policies. In some cases, too, homelessness leads to alcoholism, substance abuse and mental illness.

In many countries the prices to buy or rent homes are relatively high and rising faster than wages. Urban “gentrification” leading to rising property values and rental rates push low-income households into precarious living arrangements including slums, squatter settlements and homelessness. Even people with jobs sometimes cannot afford adequate housing on minimum wages. One recent study, for example, found that nowhere in the United States can someone who works 40 hours a week at the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour afford a one-bedroom apartment at fair market rent. To afford a one-bedroom apartment at the average fair market rate without paying more than 30 percent of one/s income, a person must earn at least $16.35 an hour.

In many cities, growing homelessness is straining resources for social workers and shelters. When officials try to open new facilities or provide services for the homeless, they encounter financial constraints as well as resistance from the public and private enterprises in many neighborhoods, which consider homelessness burdensome and bad for business.

Measures to keep the homeless away, on the move and out of sight include laws banning loitering, noise projection, panhandling, and public feedings/services for the homeless, panhandling or begging; restrictions on camping, sleeping in vehicles; or sitting or standing in public places; limits for can and bottle refunds; and studs, spikes and arms in the middle of benches. Law enforcement officials and security personnel generally lack mandates or specialized training to address homelessness. The only recourse is ordering people move on to another locale.

Many international agreements, declarations and development goals have been adopted stressing the basic human right to adequate, safe and affordable housing. Also, there are no shortages of reports, policy recommendations and efforts to address homelessness including public housing schemes for the poor, giving stable housing firstto the homeless, land and agrarian reform, promulgation of laws that protect women's right to adequate housing, creation of shelters in urban centers, and integrated rural development to prevent involuntary migration to cities.

However, the continuation of homelessness, especially among the wealthy countries, reflects denial and the lack of political will to address poverty and many other issues. Homelessness men, women and children will likely remain an accepted feature of modern urban life for the foreseeable future.

Joseph Chamie is an independent consulting demographer and a former director of the United Nations Population Division. 

Revision: This article was updated on January 21, 2020, to add the specific warning from the OECD about using its data to compare homelessness among countries. The article also includes OECD links on both strategies and data for the graph.

Revision: This article was updated on July, 15, 2020, and includes recent OECD data not available in 2017.

Copyright © 2017 YaleGlobal and the MacMillan Center

Comments

Many are quick to jump to judgemental conclusions about the homeless, who they are and the challenges they face. To help people understand how complex the issues of homelessness are and the lack of viable choices for people facing homelessness are I worked with two groups in Auckland NZ (Awhina Mai Tatou Katoa and Radio NFA) to build a temporary maze. The piece was called 'stuck in the maze // from housed to homeless' and invited people to take a journey through the maze and read the stories, feeling and actions of people with lived experienced of homelessness (which they courageously shared on the walls of the maze.

It was based on a piece of research called an insight into the experience of rough sleeping in central Auckland (https://www.lifewise.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/rough-sleeping-re...).

The maze was included in Auckland's World Homeless Day programming on 10 October 2016. To see some of what people said and its impact we captured people's social media thoughts on this storify (https://storify.com/dmlewisnz/stuck-in-the-maze).

Some countries may be more candid or thorough in reporting numbers.

Are countries developing concrete plans to stop the tide of homelessness? Globally, are governments, federal and local taking this issue seriously? Communities, local leaders and government officials must come together to stop corporations and other big business from making threats to leave if any actions are taken that focus on stopping homelessness, Amazon is a perfect example of throwing a temper tantrum to Seattle City officials, they got their way and then complained about homeless people sleeping in the doorways and near the building. Instead of complaining, they need to be involved in the discussion and help people who need it, this is White corporate privilege flexing their muscle and being selfish. Get it together people and make a plan to make homelessness stop.

People in the arizona state are trying to spread the word that people are trying to donate to the homeless.We can donate multiple things.We just need to spread the word.

Homelessness is an issue and many people don't think its as bad, only because they're rich and come from a spoiled family. They need to put themselves inside the mind and eyes of someone who is struggling, but many people refuse to do that. I honestly think that the government barely understands homelessness, only because they haven't been homeless or struggling. Many people can't afford shoes/shirts/etc so they can't get a good job, or get thrown out and haven't finished school or can't and they can't get a job. But I honestly feel as if we could do something, it would take a long time but we should still try. Many people go on the streets and people refuse to help, call them panhandlers and sure some people are faking homelessness, which is an even bigger issue, but, we should try to help everyone nonetheless. Opening more shelters, helping people who actually need it. Not just giving money to the poor, but helping them get back on their feet by shelters and food. Helping homeless youth to get the education they need.

Homelessness is a lack of housing because as the population increases the lesser amount of houses accomodate people.

I live in New Zealand, visited NYC and CA a few months ago. Surprised NZ is top of this list. If correct, appears ours are a lot less visible. I was saddened by the amount of visible homelessness I saw in USA. I work in Wellington, number of homeless on the street I see regularly probably number half a dozen. I know Auckland has a few more but there are definitely not 40,000 visibly living in the street.

Homelessness in NZ is largely an Auckland problem. The price of housing, especially family housing is well out of range. We have whole families sleeping in their cars at night, parking up alongside other families doing the same thing in disused car parks or in suburban parks. They are working but their wages simply don’t meet the cost of living here. Housing market gone mad. This report was in 2015, you can imagine how much worse this will be after COVID-19.

Build social housing now. It's our only way out. The private sector has no interest in providing housing for the poor.

As a group of high school seniors we have looked at the scourge of homelessness, and after much debate and research have come to several conclusions detailed here. First, the top causes of homelessness are drug addiction and mental illness. Identifying what caused them to be homeless in the first place is very helpful and also sheds light on how difficult solutions will be.

So, what does a society do? We are unanimous in the opinion that society has the right to function and use its facilities without repeated agitation, so loiterers need to be removed. They could be sent to a mental hospital, rehab or even prison if they are a repeat offender, which actually could serve as rehab. This seems harsh but being lenient to perpetual offenders where there is no rule of law has obviously not helped in places like San Francisco, so how could it be worse and what about the rights of the general public?

There are a number of people on the streets who have had a horrible stretch in life and would actually benefit from some help. This group seems small, but it does exist and there are some success stories waiting to be found if done properly. For those homeless without mental illness or an addiction we propose having them work for food and shelter instead of just handing it to them for free. This push will allow them to want to get a job or even turn their life around, but endless handouts never work and some tough love is in order.

Our final salvo is to take issue with your introductory paragraph. You start by saying that homelessness is a failure of communities, but then later admit most of the homeless struggle with addiction and mental illness. Also, how can a group whose job is to study homelessness start with minuscule causes like privatization of civic services, rapid urbanization and family breakdown? These things happen everywhere constantly and people don’t end up homeless. A simple visit to any homeless camp would yield you proof that drug use and mental health dwarf all other problems, yet, those come in as an after-thought on your site. We saw this as another example of “experts” with a progressive bias ignoring the obvious and promoting policies that fail time and again. These are our thoughts. Thank you.

"Our final salvo is to take issue with your introductory paragraph. You start by saying that homelessness is a failure of communities, but then later admit most of the homeless struggle with addiction and mental illness."

Note on first sentence: "Homelessness is a mark of failure for communities in providing basic security." That opener could refer to security for the homeless population or general public at large. Homelessness is a complex issue with multiple and cascading causes. Rounding up the homeless for mental health/substance abuse treatment or prison would cost a great deal of money and increase taxes.

Excellent article!

Elizabethan England (N.B. Elizabeth 1st!) was way ahead of our New Zealand. Their poor law distinguished between the "deserving poor" and the "undeserving". The deserving poor were helped locally. It was a parish responsibility: help might be forced apprenticeships for the young and the workhouse for adults and the poorhouse for the elderly. In addition there were various almshouses and before Henty Vlll's time the monasteries provided all sorts of help.
The undeserving poor were whipped and sent on their way and as a last resort imprisoned. There were of course tramps, vagrants and gypsies, often semi-employed as tinkers. At least society did not simply throw up its hands, write reports, and do nothing.

These OECD figures are very misleading and at best token. "Homeless" in Australia has as its major components "people in overcrowded dwellings" and "couch surfers". A fairer comparison: is "rough sleepers" on a typical night - Australia (2,400), UK (4,400), USA (553,000).. USA is very much the "home of homelessness".
There is not much homelessness in the developing world because people can make houses from cheap materials very easily.

Corruption, at every level, is the main culprit for poverty and unemployment which in turn are the main reasons for homelessness. Also contributing are mental illness, alcoholism and substance abuse as well as displacement caused by conflicts, natural disasters and dictatorial governments like Venezuela's narco-regime.
Universal basic income would significantly reduce homelessness as long as corruption is also tackled head on. Now, thanks to technology such as blockchain, there is greater hope than ever.

Homelessness is going up for one simple reason which is the out of control house prices. People (especially in western countries) have stopped to think of homes as places to live and raise families. Houses have become assets to flip to make a quick profit, a retirement pot and an equity release bank to pay for new cars and cruises. A house that used to cost £10K 30 40 years ago now is valued at a half million, how can you afford a 500k house on average wages. At the same period of house price boom wages were stagnating and even falling in some countries. Collapsing house prices is the only solution to reduce the number of homeless people; property valuation will get hammered by the coved situation. Can't wait to see 50% off signs on houses!!!!

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